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five years ago, official data on what law enforcement terms “unfounded” rape reports (that is, ones in which the police determine that no crime occurred) yield conflicting numbers, depending on local policies and procedures—averaging 8 percent to 10 percent of all reported rapes.Yet the truth is even knottier than these statistics suggest. ” depends largely on how false allegations are defined.Last December a woman writing in the comments section of the website claimed Oberst raped her when she was a teenager.The charge spread across the Internet; Oberst denied it and brought a libel suit against Faircloth when she refused to retract the story.In the emotionally charged conversation about rape, few topics are more fraught than that of false allegations.Consider some responses to the news that singer-songwriter Conor Oberst had been falsely accused of sexual assault.But a presumption of guilt in alleged sexual offenses is as dangerous as a presumption of guilt in any crime, and for the same reasons: It upends the foundations on which our system of justice rests and creates a risk of ruining innocent lives. A commonly cited estimate, which may have originated with feminist author Susan Brownmiller in the 1970s, is that they account for only about 2 percent of rape reports.After the Oberst fiasco, feminist blogger Rebecca Watson posted a video asserting that, statistically, you will be wrong two out of 100 times if you presume a rape accusation to be true and 98 out of 100 times if you presume it to be false.
But does it mean that 93 percent of the reports that could be evaluated were shown to be truthful?Rape is a repugnant crime—and one for which the evidence often relies on one person’s word against another’s.